Hello, and welcome back to Tomorrow Will Be Worse. 

It’s been a head-spinning few days. As you know, Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin met virtually today to discuss whatever it is that Putin has planned for Ukraine. I sent you my scene-setter for the summit yesterday, and you’ll receive my full post-game analysis tomorrow.

But I had to slide into your inboxes a second day in a row to share this fantastic piece by my colleague Tina Nguyen. She interviewed Jeff Roe, the G.O.P. political consultant that led Glenn Youngkin to victory in the Virginia gubernatorial race last month. It’s a masterclass in interviewing, in convincing your subject to let you look under the hood of the successful political operation he ran. Also, if you’re a Democrat, make sure you’re reading this Q&A with a sick bag at your side: if even half of what Roe says comes to pass, 2022 and 2024 will be electoral massacres for Democrats. (I particularly loved this spin on the usual scissors-to-a-knife-fight motif that’s become so common when describing Democratic strategy: “It’s like we got this hammer, and they’re responding with, like, a sponge,” Roe told Tina. L.O.L. but also yikes!)

Anyway, I hope you enjoy the interview. If you’re enjoying these free previews, you can subscribe here to get full access to Puck and all this stellar content in your inbox on the regular.

The Democrats’ 2024 Kryptonite

Ever since Jeff Roe led Glenn Youngkin to victory in Virginia, he has become the G.O.P.’s master strategist for creating a new Trump-adjacent, post-Trump playbook for Never Trump Republicans. Herewith, he envisions 2022 and beyond.

“My victory lap has been way overdone and I’m kind of sick of it,” joked Jeff Roe from the Houston office of Axiom Strategies, his august political consultancy. Roe, after all, was the political guru who managed Glenn Youngkin’s unlikely victory in the Virginia gubernatorial race, during which the half-zip wearing former private equity C.E.O. defeated former Democratic governor Terry McAullife in a state that Joe Biden won handily a year ago.

Axiom has run hundreds of races over the years, including Ted Cruz’s 2016 national campaign, but Roe has become synonymous with the Youngkin campaign in large part because the victory articulated a new Trump-friendly, post-Trump Playbook for Never Trump Republicans. After alienating suburban moms and people of color during the Trump years, suburban voters and minorities suddenly turned up to vote Republican in Virginia. And Roe suddenly became the hottest name in political consulting, a phenomenon he attributes to the fact that there was so much press attention on this particular race given its proximity to the swamp. 

A month after the sugar-high of the Youngkin victory, Roe has had some time to reflect on the lessons from Virginia and forecast what comes next. He and I talked about swing voting blocs, hyperinflation, and—naturally—the 2024 draft picks. His biggest takeaway, however, was that Democrats have boxed themselves into an untenable position. “We gave up the suburbs [to the Democrats in 2018] because we nominated and communicated on issues that nobody talked about, nobody cared about,” he said. “The Democrats right now are doing the exact same thing.” (The following interview has been condensed and edited for clarity.)

Tina Nguyen: What has transpired in the month since Youngkin won? Is there a new defining message that you’ve seen?

Jeff Roe: I think they might have a takeaway that Trump is not the cure-all pill, which is definitely a lesson. But they’re not going to take the lesson about [critical race theory in] schools. Because it’s kind of the final frontier for liberalism: to push their agenda all the way into the schools. And then on the cost of living: Swing voters who participate in elections, they believe that Biden and the Democrats, writ large, are responsible for cost of living increases. Everybody says it. Every focus group, every poll. And they completely—almost 78 to 11—blame Democrats. I don’t know if it’s bad luck. I don’t know what it is. But it is profound.

I’m curious how you view the possible impact of the Supreme Court repealing abortion rights. Many assumed it would mobilize the left, but I keep seeing Democratic strategists thinking that it might not be as effective as previously believed at turning out votes. 

Let’s just say they repeal Roe. That could get the excitement up, for sure. But it’s not going to get excitement up where they need it, which is with non-whites. Hispanics are going to continue to go the other way. I mean, our polling shows that non-white voters are more persuadable than the white voters are right now for Republicans. And for the future demographics of the country, we need that to be the case and we want great people to make the argument. But for the Democrats to be single-issue, that’s gonna hurt them...

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