The Zaz Stock Strategy & Buffett’s New Tide

In today’s column, my thoughts on whether Wall Street is undervaluing David Zaslav’s Warner Bros. Discovery, where last week’s 1MDB fallout fits into the history of Goldman scandals, why Warren Buffett’s on a spending spree, and what Ken Griffin and the Ricketts want with Chelsea FC.
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Happy Sunday, welcome back to Dry Powder.

Thanks as always for supporting my work here at Puck, our new media company focused on the intersection of Wall Street, Washington, Silicon Valley, and Hollywood.

In today’s column, my thoughts on whether Wall Street is undervaluing David Zaslav’s Warner Bros. Discovery, where last week’s 1MDB fallout fits into the history of Goldman scandals, why Warren Buffett’s on a spending spree, and what Ken Griffin and the Ricketts want with Chelsea FC.

Enjoy,
Bill

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The Zaz Stock Strategy & Buffett’s New Tide

As ever on Wall Street, the smart get greedy when retail gets fearful. Plus: A history of Goldman scandals and the sports deal of the decade.

WILLIAM D. COHAN

It’s something of a mystery to me, on the eve of Warner Bros. Discovery’s first day of trading as a newly combined company, that its parent stock has performed so poorly. I don’t make predictions about individual stocks of course—Dry Powder is not investment advice—but it seems as if the market has underappreciated the value that will be unlocked by housing all of the WarnerMedia and Discovery assets together under the direction of a single visionary executive, David Zaslav, especially during a moment when said market favors consolidation. The combination will create a streaming giant to potentially rival Netflix and Disney. Nevertheless, Discovery’s stock is down nearly 42 percent in the last year, reflecting the multiple contractions that have squeezed the streaming market, in general, but also investors’ negative view of WBD, in particular. And the price also reflects an unusual wrinkle in these sorts of deals.

Part of the problem for Zaz and his shareholders is the way the deal was structured to get it done. First of all there is a large “overhang” on the WBD stock, meaning that, at the moment anyway, some 71 percent of it is owned by former AT&T shareholders, who received the stock in Warner Bros. Discovery as part of the consideration for the deal. Given their experience owning TimeWarner for the past four or so years, and after seeing how owning it depressed the AT&T stock, chances are they are looking to dump their new shares. That means there are likely more sellers of the stock than buyers, applying downward pressure.

That will change, but it will take time. In fact, one of Zaz’s top priorities, along with the expected $3 billion in cost-cutting synergies and wholesale management changes, will be to successfully reshuffle much of his entire shareholder base to get the stock in the hands of people who want it and out of the hands of the people who don’t...

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