Happy Sunday, and Happy Father’s Day to those who celebrate. Welcome back to Dry Powder.

In today’s column, I look at what Elon’s company-wide Twitter town hall might suggest for the likelihood that he will eventually close this fraught deal (the Times seems bullish; the markets… less so). Then, why the fixation on crypto’s price, which has collapsed over the last few weeks, gets mistaken for its value.

Finally, I talk to my colleague Matt Belloni about what’s next for Disney and Paramount, Elon, Buffett, and ByteDance ahead of the annual Allen & Co. conference next month. That conversation, and more, below the fold.

P.S. As a reminder, you're receiving the free version of Dry Powder at . For full access to Puck, and to each of my colleagues, you can subscribe here.

The mere existence of the all-hands meeting caused Twitter’s stock to rise ever so slightly, indicating to some optimists a marginal improvement in the likelihood that Elon will close the deal. But this remains wishful thinking. Elon has made no new filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission since June 6. It’s been a quiet stretch, especially since it’s still not clear whether he still wants Twitter under the current market conditions, despite having signed a merger agreement on April 25 that commits him to close it. In its description of the meeting, The New York Times reported that it was the first time Elon acted like he was the owner of Twitter and that the town hall, in which he appeared 10 minutes late, by cell phone video, “suggested he was set on closing the blockbuster acquisition.”

I’m not sure either assertion is true. Far from demonstrating how he would operate Twitter if he closes the deal, Elon only reiterated his vague assertions that Twitter should be a haven for free speech, that he wants to make the algorithm open source, and that China’s WeChat app could be a model for future product growth. Nor am I convinced that the town hall provided any further insight into whether he intends to actually close the deal, or not. The Twitter stock price has been pretty much locked in for the past month or so, at around $37 per share, some 32 percent below the $54.20 in cash he has agreed to pay Twitter shareholders. That difference presents a meaty upside opportunity for arbitrageurs with a high tolerance for risk. (This is not investment advice.) I’m glad the Times is more confident that Elon will be closing the Twitter deal, but on the whole, Twitter shareholders don’t seem to think it will happen...