Welcome back to What I’m Hearing, and a happy Coachella and The Masters weekend to everyone in L.A. who
doesn’t go to the desert or Augusta National. The roads and restaurants are ours.
Tonight I’ve got a notebook dump, an all Thursday Thoughts issue that includes everyone from Eddy Cue and Bob Iger to Lorne Michaels and that lunatic White Lotus composer, plus CAA’s groan-inducing new offer, an international prison swap, and some other fun stuff—including a rare Taylor Sheridan public speaking appearance
(well, it was off the record, but my spies are everywhere). Next week, I’ll be on spring break and semi-off. Monday is a Kim Masters day, and data maven Julia Alexander will be here next Thursday—with contributions from me.
Still not a Puck member? Just click here. Got a news tip or an idea for me? Just reply to this email or message me on Signal at
310-804-3198.
Let’s begin…
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- The Trump tariff pain
index: “Three strikes and we’re out.” That was the text reply when I asked a veteran movie producer how afraid he was of the Trump tariff chaos that has enveloped the markets and alarmed most economists. A recession, coming on the heels of the Covid disruption and industry-wide strikes, would be like one of those ’80s movies where Arnold or Van Damme sticks a red-hot poker into some bad guy’s already bleeding wound—gratuitously
painful for Hollywood.
But the pain will not be evenly distributed, at least not according to the latest round of analyst reports, which are focusing in the short term on the media companies most exposed to the advertising business. You’d think that would be Google, Meta, Amazon, Roku, and the other tech platforms. But as with newspapers and radio during the 2008 financial crisis, the most vulnerable now could be the old-school ad players who are not the first choice for brands
and thus might be the first cut—and the least likely to withstand a downturn. “In a more cautious environment, marketers will prioritize performance-driven advertising over broad brand campaigns—a dynamic that favors digital and measurable media,” the analysts at MoffettNathanson wrote in a report this week. Meaning television, once again, is especially shaky.
So, heading into the advertising upfronts next month, which entertainment companies are most reliant on ads? According to 2024
numbers (via that same report), here’s the percentage of total revenue that comes from ads for the companies that break it out or that analysts estimate:
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- Fox: 39 percent
- Paramount: 35 percent
- Warner Bros. Discovery: 21 percent
- Comcast: 13 percent
- Disney: 13 percent
- Netflix: 4 percent
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So, is Fox potentially the most screwed here? Probably not, given the Murdochs’, uh, unique and devoted audience at Fox News. Paramount and Warner Discovery seem most vulnerable, per usual, though they both sell digital and linear ads, the majority of revenue still comes from linear. However… both Disney and Comcast, which are less reliant on ads, take in 33 percent and 7 percent of their revenue, respectively, from theme parks. Those, of course, are also on the Recession Hit
List, with Disney earning nearly half its total revenue from ads and parks—a double-whammy that could leave Bob Iger & Co. worse off overall.
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A MESSAGE FROM OUR SPONSOR
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The Emmy award-winning series, Hacks, returns tonight! The new season follows Deborah Vance making a move
from her Vegas residency to Hollywood show biz. Tensions rise as Deborah and Ava try to get their late night show off the ground, and make history while doing it. Starring Jean Smart and Hannah Einbinder, Hacks Season 4 premieres tonight at 9pm, exclusively on Max.
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CAA throws some nickels to its agents: CAA just did a debt raise, which will lead to a small payout for some of its agents and employees, based on their equity in the company. That’s according to a confidential memo that equity holders received on Tuesday, which made its way to me because some initially thought it was a joke. And that’s because the agency leadership also finally agreed to let those equity holders sell some of their stock back to the privately held company for a
cash-out. C.E.O. Bryan Lourd set the limit at “1.2 percent of the total value of your current CAA equity holdings.”
1.2 percent? “Beyond offensive,” one agent told me. “Excited to finally take my wife to Steak 48,” snarked another. No, not exactly a windfall for the CAA proletariat that has endured years of promises of the riches awaiting employees other than the leadership, especially after François-Henri Pinault acquired TPG’s
controlling stake in the company in 2023. I know, it’s hard to feel bad for the Stormtroopers in the CAA Death Star, and with the entire industry in freefall, maybe something is better than nothing. But try selling that line to an agent.
- Apple TV+ seems to be sick of its status: Is Eddy Cue finally getting serious about growing Apple TV+? Last fall, the Apple services V.P. swallowed his pride and added the streamer to rival Prime
Video’s Channels store. Since then, Amazon has accounted for as much as 25 percent of Apple TV+’s new monthly subscribers, per Antenna data, contributing to significant growth. This month, riding the rare Nielsen-worthy viewership numbers for Severance and The Gorge, Apple is offering a $3/month introductory rate for three months to both new and returning subscribers, a 70 percent discount and its biggest price cut ever.
Also this month, Apple TV+ quietly
named Jonathan Melber head of global licensing. The Max and Hulu acquisitions veteran, who had been consulting for Apple for more than a year, is charged with growing the library of content available on the service. That’s mainly complying with library licensing requirements in certain territories, and Apple says there’s no change to its overall strategy. But it sure seems
like Cue & Co. are finally getting aggressive about juicing the Apple TV+ sub numbers, reversing its churn problem, and fixing its core issue: There’s just not very much to watch.
- Who’s gonna be the British Lorne?: That’s one of many open questions now that Lorne Michaels finally got his wish after years of trying to launch a U.K. version of Saturday Night Live. A few big questions: The top U.K. broadcasters
are BBC and ITV, but because NBC owner Comcast also owns Sky, this show will air on Sky Max, a smaller pay TV channel and streamer known for sports and HBO shows. Will it be able to capture the zeitgeist the same way SNL still can? Saturday has always been the big TV viewing night in the U.K., but Sky Max doesn’t currently air any non-sports event programming.
As a pay service, Sky Max will care more about subscribers than high ratings, but SNL thrives as a promotion
platform for big stars, so viewership numbers matter a lot. Also, will a smaller audience and digital footprint justify the kinds of production budgets that Michaels has long enjoyed at SNL? Not to mention that while Michaels himself is Canadian and a noted Anglophile, who still spends the bulk of his summers in the U.K., his brand of broad humor on SNL is distinctly American. And he’s 80. Which brings it back to: Who’s gonna be the British Lorne?
- Oscar’s stunt Oscar stunt: Buried in today’s announcement of a new Oscar for “stunt design,” beginning in 2028, is the fine print that “the specifics of the award’s presentation will be determined” at “a future date.” Meaning that just like with the casting Oscar, which will debut at next March’s show, the board of governors hasn’t decided whether the stunt Oscar will be given during the telecast. I’m on record saying that 23 categories is waaay too many for the show, but a
stunt design award seems like the perfect way to add a spectacle to the telecast and reward blockbuster movies that more people have seen. How about we swap the three shorts categories for stunts?
- Moana spanks the Russos: The long-awaited Nielsen chart arrived today for the week of March 10-16, which includes the premieres of both The Electric State and Moana 2. No surprise: The Disney sequel to the most-streamed film of 2024 had its
way with the Russo brothers’ $300 million Netflix epic starring Millie Bobby Brown and Chris Pratt, generating just under 2 billion minutes viewed compared to 1.2 billion for Electric State. Moana did have an extra day and a half, dropping on March 12 on Disney+, compared to the three-day period for Electric State, though the Russo movie is a half-hour longer, for those who actually finished it.
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A MESSAGE FROM OUR SPONSOR
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The Emmy award-winning series, Hacks, returns tonight! The new season follows Deborah Vance making a move
from her Vegas residency to Hollywood show biz. Tensions rise as Deborah and Ava try to get their late night show off the ground, and make history while doing it. Starring Jean Smart and Hannah Einbinder, Hacks Season 4 premieres tonight at 9pm, exclusively on Max.
LEARN MORE
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‘White Lotus’ defector dropped from Emmys push: No, you won’t see Cristobal Tapia de Veer, the celebrated composer of the White Lotus score, on the HBO-funded Emmys campaign trail. Not after his quiet feud with creator Mike White exploded into public view, with Tapia de Veer quitting the show via The New York Times, which White called a “bitch move.” Tapia de Veer has won three Emmys for the show’s trippy music and has campaigned in
previous seasons. But given the animosity, HBO isn’t including him in its push, though his music will be submitted, and Tapia de Veer could “go rogue,” as they say, and do his own campaign. He’ll also get two tickets to the Creative Arts Emmys ceremony if he’s nominated, and White is unlikely to attend that one, so they’d probably avoid unpleasant interactions.- Life imitates ‘The Studio’ at Disney: Steve Asbell, president of
Disney’s 20th Century Studios, has been on a damage-control tour ever since Seth Rogen outed him as the source of his character’s signature line from the new Apple TV+ show, The Studio: “I got into this because I love movies, and now it’s my job to ruin them.” Asbell, who actually does have a good reputation with filmmakers (even Jim Cameron likes
him), has been denying in meetings and lunches that he told Rogen any such thing—which, of course, is exactly something that an insecure studio executive character would do on The Studio. So I’m going with Rogen on this one.
- Box office over/under: Speaking of 20th, can The Amateur beat an animated Jesus? The Rami Malek spy thriller and Angel Studios’ The King of Kings are both tracking for
about $13 million this weekend. I’ll take the over on both, though I think He will end up ascending (sorry) but still get trounced by Minecraft.
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Finally, back by popular demand, some fun stuff…
Congrats to filmmaker Pete Berg, whose yearlong effort to win the release of ballerina Ksenia Karelina from a Russian prison ended today with Karelina being sent home, per U.S. officials. Berg knows Karelina, a dual Russian-American citizen, through her boyfriend, Chris Van Heerden, a boxer who trains at Berg’s L.A. gym. When she was detained on a trip to Russia for donating about $50
to support Ukraine, Van Heerden and Berg began working their connections—including Dana White, friend of Trump and head of UFC, a sister company of Berg’s agency, WME—to convince the U.S. State Department to get involved. … Taylor Sheridan sat for a rare live Q&A at this week’s Kiawah Island event at the Sanctuary hotel, a sports conference that also featured talks by Netflix’s Bela “I’m Not Interested in Sports Deals Until I
Am” Bajaria, and Ryan “Let’s Talk About Welcome to Wrexham and Not That Other Thing” Reynolds. According to two sources, Sheridan demurred when interviewer Brian Stelter asked about the sale of his home studio, Paramount, and the incoming David Ellison regime, choosing instead to extol the power of
creativity over corporate machinations. But TV’s most powerful writer-producer did say he’s planning to direct more movies in the future. … People are still talking about Reese Witherspoon’s raucous toast last weekend at the 50th birthday party for Shannon Rotenberg, the philanthropy executive and ex of manager-producer Michael Rotenberg. The Hotel Bel-Air event drew Netflix’s Ted Sarandos, Disney’s Dana
Walden, soon-to-be-Paramount’s Jeff Shell, and tons more. … No disrespect to the White House Correspondents’ Dinner, but the actual Nerd Prom, the tech industry’s Breakthrough Prize ceremony, happened this weekend at Barker Hangar in Santa Monica (for easy access to the P.J.s), which led to Jeff Bezos being spotted hanging with Brian Grazer at the Bel Air afterparty. … A tidbit from the recent premiere events for The Studio and
Hacks: Seth Rogen, who co-created and acts in the former, and Paul W. Downs, who has the same credits on the latter, did home-and-home cameos on each other’s shows this season, both playing themselves on loosely fictionalized versions of other shows within their shows. Got that?
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See you Monday,
Matt
Got a question, comment, complaint, or a collector’s item Slate PR hat or
mug? Email me at Matt@puck.news or call/text me at 310-804-3198.
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